Trumpquake hands Starmer a lifeline

Inside Time’s political columnist, Charlie Elphicke, has served time both in Parliament and in prison. In his monthly article, he surveys the Westminster scene. This month: Ukraine

The unpredictability of President Donald Trump has thrown Europe – and the wider world – off balance; no one more so than President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, who got ambushed by Trump in the Oval Office. But last month Sir Keir Starmer, who has had a shaky start as Prime Minister, made the chaos an opportunity for him and the UK. All of a sudden Starmer is looking less becalmed and more full of beans. To the surprise of many, the UK looks better placed with the US and is even providing leadership to Europe on the situation in Ukraine.

It’s a far cry from how things were at Christmas. The Europeans were demanding that the UK grovel and cave in on a lengthy list of demands for an improved trade deal. That talk has rather faded as security and rearmament becomes the priority continent-wide. Things also looked bleak in terms of our relations with the US, with the Trump administration even threatening to block the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador. Following Starmer’s visit to see Trump at the end of February, there is talk of a trade deal, and the UK wasn’t as impacted by Trump’s first wave of tariffs as elsewhere.

But can it last? Starmer’s approach to seek to galvanise Europe on the one hand and be a bridge with the US on the other is not without risk. If relations worsen between Europe and the US, Starmer’s position could end up being one where both sides think he stands with the other. Meanwhile, trying to get European countries organised in dealing with rearmament, Ukraine and Russia will be extremely difficult. As things stand, Europe is – as ever – long on talk and warm words, but very short on any kind of action.

The biggest challenge, of course, is Ukraine. No one can tell when, or on what terms, a peace may be made. Following Zelenskyy’s Oval Office disaster, it all looked over for Ukraine. But then they got the mineral deal back on track, while Russia is suddenly looking like it is to blame for blocking an end to the war. No doubt this will continue to seesaw, but the underlying position for a ceasefire or peace treaty is less likely to change.

It looks like Russia will get to keep the land it has occupied. The Americans will get their minerals deal. What is not clear is whether Ukraine will be required to be “neutral” or allowed to join the EU, or how the country will be allowed to defend itself once the current conflict has ended.

Starmer has suggested a peacekeeping force to follow a peace between Russia and Ukraine. Trump does not want to send US troops overseas, so he can be expected to support a force made up of soldiers from other nations. But Russia’s original war aim was to swallow a large chunk of Ukraine and have a puppet government for the rest. So the Russians can be expected to oppose both a nuclear-armed Ukraine and European peacekeepers, as such moves would make it much more difficult for Russia to restart the war in due course.

The next question is: if war ends, who will rebuild Ukraine? There is no doubt that Trump will want US multinationals to be at the front of the queue. For Starmer and the UK, the challenge will be to be next in line ahead of the Europeans. There is a good chance of success, as the Ukrainians see the UK as a far more dependable partner than the rest of Europe, while the US views the UK far more positively than the EU.

As things stand, Starmer has managed a difficult situation well. He is looked on favourably by Trump, while the Europeans increasingly see the UK as vital for the continent’s security. His position is also fortunate, as if the US were to become less favourable, most would put it down to the unpredictability of the ‘Trumpquake’. Meanwhile, if proposals for peacekeepers or other European action come to nothing, most would put that down to the inability of the Europeans to organise themselves in any meaningful way.

Keir Starmer has had a shaky start as Prime Minister. But his management of the difficult international situation is giving his doubters pause to reconsider. If he can continue to be as sure-footed as he has been in recent weeks, he could be in a much better place come the summer.

What I saw

When Russia invaded Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014, I was serving as a Parliamentary aide to the Foreign Office. The failure of the West to do anything about it was disgraceful. Putin saw that if he started a wider war, Ukraine would be on its own. What no-one could predict is that the Ukrainians would be so heroic and effective on the battlefield.

Charlie Elphicke was the Conservative MP for Dover from 2010 to 2019, and is a former HMP resident.